In outbreak investigation, which statement best describes how to develop a hypothesis?

• A. Use data collected to test hypothesis
• B. Based on knowledge of cases and disease formulate hypothesis
• C. Guess randomly without data
• D. Rely solely on political considerations

Answer: (B)

In outbreak investigations, the starting move is to form a hypothesis from what is observed about the cases and what is known about the disease. By examining descriptive clues—the who, when, and where of illness—and integrating knowledge about how the disease spreads and its likely exposures, you generate plausible explanations about the source, route of transmission, or risk factors. This makes the hypothesis specific and testable, so you can then design data collection and analytic methods to confirm or refute it. Relying on random guesses or on political considerations would lead away from scientific validity and ethical practice, while using data to test a hypothesis is the next step after you’ve grounded your idea in the observed cases and disease biology.